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 Friday
Facts - Archives -
Month of November 2006Current
Week
November 10, 2006
Elections Wrap up No Real Surprises
Governor Rell Wins Overwhelming Re-election
Democrats Maintain Majority in Both State House and State
Senate
Lieberman Wins While Ds Pick up At Least One Seat in Congress
Retail News and Notes
Election 2006 is now behind us, although for a few races
things have yet to be settled.
The results were somewhat predictable but there were a few
surprises mostly margin of victory and a few upsets as well.
For Retailers, it is more of the same at the state level.
Democrats in the House actually increased their numbers while
the Senate stayed the same.
As we move closer to the start of the session, we will
notify members as to our first Legislative Committee
conference call to preview what to expect this year.
Governor Rell Wins Overwhelming
Re-election
In this year, with Democrats running away with races not
only in CT but nationally, incumbent Republican Governor M.
Jodi Rell was the exception.
She trounced her Democratic opponent by close to a 20%
margin.
She was never really challenged during the campaign and
effectively used a rose garden strategy to win her first 4
year term.
We expect that Rell might make some changes this time around
as she certainly has the confidence of the overwhelming
majority of CT voters.
Also as we predicted, all of Rells under ticket, candidates
for AG, Treasure, Sec of State and Comptroller went down
defeated to their better known and better funded Democratic
opponents.
So, that means four more years of Dick Blumenthal for AG,
Denise Nappier as Treasurer, Susan Bysiewicz as Secretary of
State and Nancy Wyman as Comptroller.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Democrats trounced Republicans in State House and State
Senate races and now have veto proof margins in both chambers.
House Democrats, who already enjoy a larger majority,
actually came out of Tuesdays election with an even larger
majority.
This majority gives them the ability to override any bill or
budget that Governor Rell may choose to veto.
After Tuesday, the Democrats now have 105 seats
comfortably over the 101 they need for veto proof.
House Speaker Jim Amann, (D-Milford) who is expected to be
re-elected for his second term as Speaker when the new House
convenes in January, understands fully that his caucus can
override any veto that the Governor may impose but is sounding
like he is not so eager to take on the Governor.
After the election Amann had this to say about his new veto
proof majority The citizens of CT wanted us to have a
Republican Governor and a Democratic Legislature. They want
bipartisanship.
Amann has to name committee chairs as well as committee
assignments and leadership positions. We will keep a close eye
on those announcements and will share them with you when we
get word of them.
On the GOP side, they too have to elect a leader and it is
widely expected that Rep. Larry Cafero (R-Norwalk) will be
elected as the new House minority leader.
Democrats Maintain Majority in Both
State House and State Senate
The State Senate will look the same in terms of Democrats to
Republican but some new faces will make up the Senate thanks
to the election on Tuesday.
The Senate Democrats emerged as the majority party on
Tuesday winning a total of 24 seats while the Republicans won
12. That is the same number; also veto proof, as the last 2
years.
During the campaign we highlighted a couple of Senate races
we thought might make the Senate a little tighter.
First the 6th District, where old friend John Kissell(R-
Enfield) was being challenged very hard by former House member
Bill Kiner.
Kissell won that race
In the 14th Senatorial District, the Republicans where
pushing freshman Senator Gayle Slossberg hard to take back
that seat.
Slossberg held on to that seat for the Democrats.
And in the 9th Senatorial District where there was no
incumbent with the retirement of Sen. Billy Ciotto the
Democrats held that seat as well as with former House member
Paul Doyle beating his Republican opponent Ralph Capenera.
Senate President Don Williams, who is expected to be
re-elected to his post as leader of the Senate, also sent a
bipartisan note to Governor Rell election night saying
, he
was looking forward to reaching out to the Governor and
working with her.
The new General Assembly will get sworn in on January 3,
2007, opening day of the new session.
Lieberman Wins While Ds Pick up At
Least One Seat in Congress
As we predicted (not to brag of course) US Senator Joseph I.
Lieberman won his three way contest for the US Senate seat,
defeating Ned Lamont and GOP candidate Alan Schlesinger by a
comfortably margin.
Lieberman will now head back to the Senate for a third 6
year term saying that he will help the Democratic Caucus
organize (he has also been assured that he will not lose any
seniority) but with a commitment to continue to be an
independent voice in the Congress.
Lieberman will be joined in Congress once again by Rep. John
Larson and Rep. Rosa DeLauro who both won nearly no contest
races.
However, a new Democrat will join Larson and DeLauro in the
Democratic caucus.
Former State Senator Chris Murphy defeated 24 year veteran
Nancy Johnson in the 5th District. (we predicted that one too)
And in the 2nd CD a cliff hanger is also underway.
As we go to print, former State Rep. member Joe Courtney is
claiming victory over Rob Simmons.(we thought Simmons would
hang on)
However, because the margin is so tight (under 300 votes) a
recount is required and it may take a few days to sort it all
out.
Finally in the 4th CD, incumbent member Chris Shays hung on
to defeat his challenger Dianne Farrell in another hotly
contested race. ( yes we predicted Farrell would win - hey we
got the Lieberman and Murphy ones right)
In the end the wave that hit throughout the country, hit CT
too.
It remains to be seen if the wave takes one more
Congressional seat with it.
If that is the case then CT, would now have 4 out of the 5
congressional seats held by Democrats along with the two US
Senate seats.
That is a pretty blue state.
Retail News and Notes
J.C. Penney rebound efforts ahead of schedule, J.C. Penney's
turnaround efforts are moving faster than expected as its
private label brands continue to generate sales and connect
with shoppers. The retailer's new store open rate was set at
50 stores this year.
How the Democrats might regulate marketing with control of
the U.S. Senate apparently set to shift to the Democrats,
hearings on direct-to-consumer prescription drug marketing and
children's food marketing could be on the horizon. Sen. Tom
Harkin, D-Iowa, who has been especially vocal on the issue of
advertising to children, is set to become chairman of the
Senate Agriculture Committee.
Advertising Age (free registration) (11/8),
MediaPost Communications
Minimum wage hikes likely after Tuesday's election
Democratic victors set to lead the House of Representatives
said they will call for an increase in the $5.15 an hour
federal minimum wage, last raised in 1997. Voters in six
states approved bumping up the minimum wage to at least $6.15
an hour, despite one restaurant group's $900,000 effort to
defeat the six ballot measures.
The Courier-Journal (Louisville, Ky.) (11/9)
November 3, 2006
Final Election Preview and Predictions
Annual Luncheon & Awards Ceremony Wrap Up
Retail News and Notes
Election 2006 is now just days away.
We have been keeping a close eye on a number of races
throughout CT many of which have had national implications.
In this weeks Friday Facts, we will wrap up those key races
and remind you to look for a complete review of the election
in next weeks Friday Facts.
State Elections no surprises expected.
All of the States constitutional officers are up for
re-election on Tuesday as well as the State House and State
Senate seats.
Governor M. Jodi Rell is expected to cruise to victory over
her Democratic opponent New Haven Mayor John DeStefano.
Rells lead is in the comfortable double digits and the only
real question is can DeStefano ride what appears to be a
Democratic wave that is hitting the State to come within 8 or
9 points.
Our guess here is that Rell wins by 12 points.
Under ticket will not change.
Rells running mates on the under ticket the other
constitutional officers, however may not be as fortunate as
she is.
All of the Democratic candidates for constitutional
officers, Attorney General, Secretary of the State, Treasurer
and Comptroller are expected to win re-election.
Despite some grumbling by the GOP under ticket that Rell has
not help them enough it appears, even with any help she has
given them they will fall short this year.
Democrats are expected to retain majorities in the State
House and State Senate.
This election season quite honestly has not been very
interesting in the State Legislature, because in large part to
the U. S. Senate race and the developments of some of the
congressional races.
However, the State House is where we do all of our work so
we have been keeping an eye on what is happening.
Here is what we think is going to be the end results (no
shockers in this regard):
Democrats will retain their majorities in both Houses of
the General Assembly.
The only question will be what, if any, incumbents, get
knocked off and how large will the majority be.
We spotlighted some State Senate races we thought would be
close, including the 7th and 14th District.
We will keep an eye out for the results of those races, plus
some unforeseen upsets that always happen Election Day and
report that next week.
The bottom line is despite some unforeseen upsets; the
Democrats will retain their overwhelming majority in the House
of Representatives and may even extend their majority by a
seat or two in the State Senate.
The CT Congressional race is where the action is:
This year, we must admit, the action is on the congressional
races and the US Senate race.
First the Congressional races.
Essentially in CT only three of the 5 congressional races
are competitive.
In the 1st District (Rep. John Larson) and in the 3rd
District (Rep. Rosa DeLora), are in no contest races and will
win without breaking a sweat.
However, it is the three other races where the action is and
where the incumbents are in trouble.
In the 4th Chris Shays is in a real close race against
Dianne Farrell and many are predicting that Farrell will
prevail; including the DCCC which has reportedly dumped a
whole pile of money into her campaign in the last week.
In the 5th, a real surprise may be taking shape as well.
Incumbent Nancy Johnson is in the fight of her career
against former State Senator Chris Murphy. The latest UCONN/
Hartford Courant Poll had Murphy leading Johnson by 4 points.
And in the 2nd CD, Rob Simmons is again in a very close
race, this time against former State Rep Joe Courtney. That
race, too, remains within the margin of error in the latest
polling.
Our prediction is this: Farrell prevails over Shays and
Murphy in an upset against Johnson. But we think Simmons hangs
on in a close, after midnight, possible recount, against
Courtney.
U.S. Senate Race appears to be going Joes way.
After all of the national spotlight on CTs US Senate
primary race this summer between Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont,
it appears that Lieberman will prevail on Tuesday in the
General Election.
The latest polling has Lieberman up by close to 8 % (some
polls we have seen have him higher than that) and even though
Lamont has closed the gap, the prediction here is that
Lieberman hangs on for another 6 years.
What do you think about our predictions and do you have any
of your own?
If so, we would love to here from you!
Email us your thoughts today remember predictions are not
good on Wednesday at
tim@crmaonline.com.
Annual Luncheon & Awards Ceremony Wrap
Up
We want to once again congratulate the 2006 CRMA award
winners for their excellence in retailing.
All three award recipients are a credit to the industry and
the Association and we are very proud to have honored them at
our luncheon.
Zanes Cycles, Retailer of the Year; Pilgrim Furniture City,
Excellence in Community Service; and Horans Flowers & Gifts,
Excellence in Customer Service.
Also we want to thank our wonderful and generous sponsors
for the help making the event such a success.
Finally we want to thank all of you, the over 120 people who
took time out of their busy schedules to join us. We are
grateful for your support.
Retail News and Notes
CVS to purchase Caremark Rx, Drugstore chain CVS Corp. said
it would buy the pharmacy benefits manager in a $21.2 billion
stock deal, creating a $75 billion drug company that will have
formidable power in negotiating lower prices with drug
companies.
 Bloomberg/ClipSyndicate
(11/2),
Houston Chronicle/Associated Press
Ultra-chic designer brings fashions to Target
Former Saks Fifth Avenue designer Behnaz Sarafpour has created
a new collection for Target's Go International series, which
will be available through the end of the year. The new Target
line represents an overall trend among discount retailers
looking to deliver offerings from well-known designers at less
than designer prices.
Denver Rocky Mountain News/Cox News Service
Department stores to experience holiday resurgence
Shoppers will be gravitating back to department stores this
holiday season, after several years of opting instead to shop
at niche or big-box stores. Industry consolidation and
increased efficiency are actually helping to fuel the return
to department stores, industry analysts say.
ABC News
Remember to Vote on Tuesday every
vote counts!
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